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2019-04-27

Choice
Before I start, I want to make a small investigation, if life give you a second chance, would you make a different choice in such situations?
Please raise your hand if your answer is yes, how many people want to choose a different university?a different major?your first job?your first girl or boy friend? how about your current boy or girl friend, even your partner?
0?? OK, I have already guessed it before I come. It's not easy to say it in public.Me neither.
So, we have xxxxx people want to make a different choice. Congratulations, we miss the chances. What we can do is to make a better choice next time.
Why I want to ask this question is because I saw a sentence like this and I want to share with you:
当你老了，回顾一生，就会发觉：什么时候出国读书，什么时候决定做第一份职业、何时选定了对象而恋爱、什么时候结婚，其实都是命运的巨变。只是当时站在三岔路口，眼见风云千樯，你作出选择的那一日，在日记上，相当沉闷和平凡，当时还以为是生命中普通的一天。
——陶杰 《杀鹌鹑的少女》
When you are old, look back on your life, you will find, when do you choose to go abroad for universty, when do you choose your first job, when do you first fall in love, when do you choose to marry, all of these have a huge effect on your life. However, on that day you make your choice, itlooks like common even boring, just like an ordinary day in your life.
Do you agree? Yeah, I totally agree. When I saw this sentence, it shocked me a lot.How many important choices I have made without knowing it.
Then, one question come to me why do we didnt make a better choice at that time? why do we want to make a different choice
1. No idea about the choice?
Do you know what does it mean when you make a choice? University? major? I think you know well for girl friend or boy friend?
2. dont have other choice?
3. don't know what do we want?
4. drifter? lazy to find options?
5. Driven by your emotions:
Eager, horror, angry
Don't date with that guy? No way, dont bother me.
6. hard to make decision, no option is obvious better
1. knowledge or experience
knowledge， experience， or even somebody predictable, for examble, somebody told you to buy house before 2004 or before 2010.


2. enough options
How many options do you have when you made your choice?The more options, the better choice you can make.
So, how many boy friends or girl friends do you have? I am not encouragingyou to date with many boys or girls. However, you should know boys or girls with comparison.
3. Follow your heart
4. Active
人生的道路虽然漫长，但紧要处常常只有几步
——柳青 《创业史》
当你没有选择余地的时候，努力是唯一的变数。当你有选择余地的时候，选择（运气）比努力重要。
学会选择会比学会努力更重要
——无名氏
5. Calm down
6.
2富兰克林对比法 1772年，本的朋友得到了一个工作机会，因此向本寻求建议。本的回信没有直接给出建议，但提出了一个方法：取出一张纸，在上面画条线，分别在线的两侧写入“利”和“弊”，把想到的利弊因素都记录下来，再去估量每个因素的重要性，同等重要的一起划掉，最后根据剩下的做出相应决定。
to divide half a Sheet of Paper by a Line into two Columns, writing over the one Pro, and over the other Con
. choice,beauty and me
5. hard choice in your near future, two career, places to live, even between people to marry


create reason


For example:
Forty-one percent of first marriages end in divorce.
Forty-four percent of lawyers would not recommend a career in law to young people.
Eighty-three percent of corporate mergers and acquisitions fail to create any value for shareholders.


knowledge experience
option number
beauty and beast
emotion,driven by eager,driven by anger,driven by our sandness
drifter
lack of sufficient understanding of a problem
gut intuition


4-step process for making better choice ,from 《DECISIVE》
Widen your options.
Reality-test your assumptions.
Attain distance before deciding.
Prepare to be wrong.


Life is all about choices.
The essence of choice is to give up
It is choices,not fate,that defines your life.
We have too narrow of focus.We are guilty of “spotlight thinking.” We focus on the obvious and visible. We miss important facts outside our immediate view.
We fall into confirmation bias.We develop a quick belief about something and then seek out information that confirms that belief.
We get caught in short-term emotion.We are too emotionally connected to the decision and struggle with being appropriately detached.
We are guilty of overconfidence.We assume that we know more than we actually do know and jump to conclusions, thinking we can accurately predict the future.
Widen your Options
Be wary of “whether or not” decisions… there are always more options.
Think about opportunity cost.
What if your current options disappeared… what would you do?
Try multitracking (consider more than one option simultaneously).
Beware “fake” options: if no one on the team disagrees with an option, it is a fake option.
Try for “this AND that” rather than “this OR that”
Find someone who’s solved your problem (look outside, look inside)
Use a playlist to help generate new options
Reality-test your Assumptions
We seek out information that supports what wealready believe.
Spark constructive disagreement.
Ask probing, disconfirming questions (unless there is a power dynamic).
Force yourself to consider thatthe opposite is true.
Test your assumptions with a “deliberate mistake”.
Trust averages, and seek reviews.
Try to see it from the outside. Your close perspective clouds judgement.
If you can’t find “base rates” or averages, ask an expert.
Combine your data & averages with a few closeups, for texture.
Ooching = running small experiments to test our theories. Whypredictwhen you canknow.


Attain distance before deciding
Avoid emotionally laden situations if possible (don’t make a car buying decision under pressure from a salesman).
Think about how you’d feel about your decision 10 minutes/10 months/10 years from now.
Emotions are affected bymere exposure: we like what’s familiar to us.
Emotions are affected byloss aversion: we had to lose more than we love to gain.
Combined, loss aversion and mere exposure lead to status-quo bias.
Look at the situation from an observer’s point of view (what would our successors do?).
“What would I tell my best friend to do in this situation?”
Agonizing decisions are often a sign of conflict among your core priorities.
Identify and enshrine your core priorities to ease future dilemmas.
Establishing core priorities is only effective if they areactively pursued.
Go on the offense against lesser priorities. Make a “stop-doing” list


Prepare to be wrong
The future is not a “point” to predict, it’s a range. We predict more accurately in ranges than in points.
Make a “premortem” to prepare for the worst. “It’s a year from now. Our decision has failed utterly. Why?”
Make a “preparade” to prepare for the best. “It’s a year from now.
Our decision has succeeded fantastically. Will we be ready for success?”
Include a “safety factor” to prepare for what can’t be foreseen.
Anticipate & simulate future problems to prepare for them.
Set a tripwire to reevaluate past decisions and prevent autopilot.
如何与压力做朋友
学校扼杀创造力
肢体语言塑造你自己
内向性格的力量
如何才能幸福




目的：本项目的目的是学习或复习基本的研究方法并围绕任何主题发表组织有序、做了充分研究的演讲。
【2019-04-27】概述：选择你尚不熟悉或希望了解更多的主题。确保主题内容范围适中，适合 5 到 7 分钟的演讲。按照此项目所述研究主题并开始组织信息。练习演讲，继续精练演讲结构。在俱乐部会议上做演讲。

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