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2021|谷歌董事会主席John Hennessy：AI技术发展放缓，我们正处于半导体产业寒冬 | 钛媒体T-EDGE( 九 )


那么我们现在处于一个什么位置呢？我们来到了计算行业的一个有趣时期 。我想通过分享一些我的个人思考、以及对未来的一些展望结束这场讲演，因为我认为我们正处在计算领域历史的一个转折点 。
From 1960s, the introduction of the first real commercial computers, to 1980 we had largely vertically integrated companies.
从 1960 年代第一台真正的商用计算机的出现到 1980 年，市面上的计算机公司基本上都是垂直整合的 。
IBM Burroughs Honeywell be early spin outs out of the activity at the university of Pennsylvania that built ENIAC the first electronic computer.
IBM、宝来公司、霍尼韦尔、以及其他参与了宾夕法尼亚大学制造的世界上第一台电子计算机 ENIAC 公司都是垂直整合的公司 。
IBM is the perfect example of a vertically integrated company in that period. They did everything, they built around chips they built the round disc's in fact the West Coast operation of IBM here in California was originally open to do disc technology and the first Winchester discs were built on the West Coast.
IBM 是那个时期垂直整合公司的完美典范 。IBM好像无所不能，他们围绕着芯片制造，他们制造了光盘 。事实上，IBM 在加利福尼亚的西海岸业务最初就是光盘技术，而第一个温彻斯特光盘就是在西海岸制造出来的 。
They built their own processors. The 360, 370 series, etc. After that they build their own operating system they built their own compilers. They even built their own database estate. They built their networking software. In some cases, they even built application program but certainly the core of the system from the fundamental hardware up through the databases OS compilers were all built by IBM. And the driver here was technical concentration. IBM could put together the expertise across these wide set of things, assemble a world-class team and really optimize across the stack in a way that enabled their operating system to do things such as virtual memory long before other commercial activities can do that.
他们还构建了自己的处理器，有360、370系列等等 。之后他们开发了自己的操作系统、编译器 。他们甚至建立了自己的数据库、自己的网络软件 。他们甚至开发了应用程序 。可以肯定的是，从基础硬件到数据库、操作系统、编译器等系统核心都是由 IBM 自己构建的 。而这里的驱动力是技术的集中 。IBM 可以将这些广泛领域的专业知识整合在一起、组建一个世界一流的团队、并从而优化整个堆栈，使他们的操作系统能够做到虚拟内存这种事，这可要比在其他公司要早得多 。
And then the world changed, really changed with the introduction of the personal computer. And the beginning of the micro processors takes off.
接着出现了重大变化——个人电脑的推出和微处理器的崛起 。
Then we change from a vertically organized industry to a horizontally organized industry. We had silicon manufacturers. Intel for example doing processors along with AMD and initially several other companies Fairchild and Motorola. We had a company like TSMC arise through silicon foundry making silicon for others. Something that didn't exist in earlier but really in the late 80s and 90s really began to take off and that enabled other people to build chips for graphics or other other functions outside the processor.
接着这个行业从垂直转变为水平纵向的 。我们有专精于做半导体的公司，例如英特尔和 AMD ，最初还有其他几家公司例如仙童半导体和摩托罗拉 。台积电也通过代工崛起 。这些在早期都是见不到的，但在 80 年代末和 90 年代开始逐渐起步，让我们能够做其它类型的处理器，例如图形处理器等 。
But Intel didn't do everything. Intel did the processors and Microsoft then came along and did OS and compilers on top of that. And oracle companies like Oracle came along and build their applications databases and other applications on top of that. So they became very horizontally organized industry. The key drivers behind this, obviously the introduction of the personal computer.

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